Buffalo, New York: Leading the Pack
Entering 2024, the real estate landscape is witnessing a dynamic shift. Spearheading this change is Buffalo, New York, poised to be the year's star in the housing market. This projection, rooted in meticulous analysis by Zillow, a renowned real estate firm, underscores the evolving preferences and economic factors influencing the real estate sector.
Zillow’s insights reveal a compelling trend: affordability is now the driving force in real estate. This pivot has brought markets in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and South into prominence. These regions, traditionally known for their lower-cost housing options, are leading Zillow’s 2024 rankings.
The health of a housing market, as Anushna Prakash from Zillow Economic Research highlights, hinges on a delicate balance between affordable home prices and robust employment opportunities. This balance is giving a new generation of buyers, especially young hopefuls, a tangible chance to own homes and start building equity.
2024 is marked by cautious optimism in the housing market. Experts predict a more stable environment, devoid of the dramatic price surges seen during the early pandemic or the fluctuating mortgage rates of recent years. Signs of improvement are evident, with mortgage rates, for instance, showing a steady decrease, averaging 6.61% for 30-year fixed mortgages as of late December.
“Housing markets are healthiest where affordable home prices and strong employment are giving young hopefuls a real shot at buying and starting to build equity.” Anushna Prakash, data scientist for Zillow Economic Research
Despite these positive trends, the market still faces challenges, notably the persistent shortage of homes for sale. However, there’s a silver lining. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com, anticipates more choices for households in 2024, thanks to a slight increase in single-family home construction and the completion of numerous multifamily units.
Zillow’s rankings aren’t arbitrary; they’re based on a rigorous analysis of the nation’s 50 most populous metros. The criteria include local home value growth forecasts and the pace at which sellers are sealing deals with buyers. The analysis also considers factors like expected home value appreciation, job growth per new home permitted, and growth in owner-occupied households.
Buffalo stands out in Zillow’s analysis, boasting the highest number of new jobs per home permitted. This metric is a key indicator of expected demand, as new jobs often translate to new residents.
Zillow’s approach goes beyond basic metrics. It also encompasses typical home values, average mortgage payments, typical rents, and the average days a house stays on the market in each city.
The rankings are dynamic; Charlotte, for instance, slipped from the top spot in 2023 to number seven in 2024. Cleveland and Atlanta maintain their positions in the top 10. Conversely, San Antonio, which ranked high in previous years, has now descended to a lower position.
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